{"title":"Distributional Vector Autoregression: Eliciting Macro and Financial Dependence","authors":"Yunyun Wang, Tatsushi Oka, Dan Zhu","doi":"10.1002/jae.70049","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div>\n \n <p>This paper extends the vector autoregression framework by introducing a flexible distributional regression that models multivariate time series without imposing restrictive parametric distribution assumptions. We develop a distributional impulse response function that captures the future effect of distributional disturbances within the system, providing a more detailed view of dynamic heterogeneity. We propose a straightforward estimation method and establish its asymptotic properties under weak dependence assumptions. Our model, in an application to U.S. economic data, exhibits strong forecasting capabilities compared to existing alternatives. By examining distributional interactions and monetary policy impacts, particularly during the Great Recession, we uncover complex macroeconomic dynamics.</p>\n </div>","PeriodicalId":48363,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Applied Econometrics","volume":"41 4","pages":"408-424"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5000,"publicationDate":"2026-06-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Applied Econometrics","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/jae.70049","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"2026/2/26 0:00:00","PubModel":"Epub","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"ECONOMICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
This paper extends the vector autoregression framework by introducing a flexible distributional regression that models multivariate time series without imposing restrictive parametric distribution assumptions. We develop a distributional impulse response function that captures the future effect of distributional disturbances within the system, providing a more detailed view of dynamic heterogeneity. We propose a straightforward estimation method and establish its asymptotic properties under weak dependence assumptions. Our model, in an application to U.S. economic data, exhibits strong forecasting capabilities compared to existing alternatives. By examining distributional interactions and monetary policy impacts, particularly during the Great Recession, we uncover complex macroeconomic dynamics.
期刊介绍：
The Journal of Applied Econometrics is an international journal published bi-monthly, plus 1 additional issue (total 7 issues). It aims to publish articles of high quality dealing with the application of existing as well as new econometric techniques to a wide variety of problems in economics and related subjects, covering topics in measurement, estimation, testing, forecasting, and policy analysis. The emphasis is on the careful and rigorous application of econometric techniques and the appropriate interpretation of the results. The economic content of the articles is stressed. A special feature of the Journal is its emphasis on the replicability of results by other researchers. To achieve this aim, authors are expected to make available a complete set of the data used as well as any specialised computer programs employed through a readily accessible medium, preferably in a machine-readable form. The use of microcomputers in applied research and transferability of data is emphasised. The Journal also features occasional sections of short papers re-evaluating previously published papers. The intention of the Journal of Applied Econometrics is to provide an outlet for innovative, quantitative research in economics which cuts across areas of specialisation, involves transferable techniques, and is easily replicable by other researchers. Contributions that introduce statistical methods that are applicable to a variety of economic problems are actively encouraged. The Journal also aims to publish review and survey articles that make recent developments in the field of theoretical and applied econometrics more readily accessible to applied economists in general.
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