Perception is reality: How individuals’ perceived transport equity shapes social exclusion in Chinese cities

Abstract

Transport-related social exclusion (TRSE) remains a pressing global concern, yet existing research often overlooks the subjective dimensions of transport equity and struggles to establish robust causal links. This study addresses these gaps by investigating how perceived transport equity influences social exclusion in urban China, drawing on a survey of 5591 residents across ten major cities. Employing double/debiased machine learning, we examine the effects of six dimensions of perceived transport equity on self-reported social exclusion.

Our findings show that perceived equity in travel cost and ease consistently alleviates social exclusion, while other dimensions such as travel duration and time flexibility have no significant aggregate effect. Crucially, the heterogeneity analysis indicates that the effects of perceived transport equity are conditional rather than uniform, with different dimensions mattering for different groups according to their mobility needs, constraints, and social positions. For instance, freedom equity is particularly important for non-local hukou holders and highly educated respondents, while ease equity matters more for women and low-income groups. We also find that mode diversity equity increases social exclusion among retirees, suggesting that a perceived advantage in modal choice may not necessarily translate into more inclusive mobility in later life. This research advances transport justice theory by centring subjective perceptions, refines our understanding of TRSE through causal insights, and enriches the sociology of mobility by revealing context-specific, demographically differentiated impacts. The findings underscore the need for nuanced, equity-driven transport policies.