The geography of the green transition: Performance, vulnerabilities and opportunities

Abstract

The green transition is reshaping Europe’s development geography, yet progress remains uneven across regions. Effective policy requires systematic tools to monitor how territories perform, adapt, and benefit from this transformation. This paper proposes a practical and multidimensional definition of the green transition aligned with the European Commission’s strategic directions and introduces a new Regional Green Transition Performance Index covering 232 NUTS-2 regions from 2009 to 2022. The index measures progress across seven pillars—environment, energy, circular economy, sustainable development, just transition, innovation and policy, and mobility—offering the first harmonized and longitudinal framework to track regional transition performance. Beyond performance, we introduce the Regional Green Transition Opportunity Index, capturing regional assets and capacities that enable adaptation and growth, and combine it with the existing Regional Green Transition Vulnerability Index. This yields an opportunity–vulnerability typology distinguishing resilient frontrunners, missed potentials, stable but stagnant, and at-risk regions. Methodologically, we conduct extensive robustness tests in the construction of the composite indices and estimate a battery of econometric convergence models to explore spatial dynamics. Results reveal significant spatial dependence and convergence in green transition performance, highlighting territorial interdependencies across regional systems. By integrating multidimensional performance with structural vulnerabilities and opportunities, the paper provides policymakers with an evidence-based, region-level monitoring tool to design balanced, place-sensitive strategies that both mitigate risks and mobilize opportunities for a just and cohesive European green transition.