Transportation carbon emission reduction channel: The role of new energy vehicle promoting application policies in urban energy structure substitution

Abstract

The promotion of new energy vehicles (NEVs) is expected to facilitate the development of a low-carbon urban transportation system and accelerate the transformation of regional energy structures. Based on panel data from 278 cities in China, this study is the first to empirically examine regional and urban energy structure substitution (ESS) effects and underlying mechanisms, using the New Energy Vehicle Promotion Policy (NEVP) as a quasi-natural experiment. The results indicate that NEVP significantly promotes ESS, with an average effect of 5.7%. This policy impact operates through several potential channels, including the reinforcing role of green technological innovation, the constraining effect of resource dependence, and the scale effect of industrial development. After accounting for the interactive effects of subsidy reductions, the energy transition exhibits noticeable short-term fluctuations, while its substitution effect on fossil energy remains prominent in the long run. Furthermore, heterogeneous analysis reveals that NEVP is more effective in promoting the green transformation of energy structures in northern cities, non-old industrial base cities, cities with high transportation pressure, and cities with lower levels of attention to energy transition.