Social protection or economic participation? Examining drivers of Ukrainian refugees' integration in Europe

Abstract

The unprecedented wave of Ukrainian refugees caused by the war placed the problem of refugee integration at the centre of demographic policy and scholarly debates. Therefore, there is a growing need to examine interconnections among economic participation, social inclusion, and access to social protection, which are commonly treated as dimensions of integration. This study examines the appropriate interplay among Ukrainian refugees across ten European host countries using aggregated 2024 data from the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees. Composite indices in each direction are developed to capture the integration dimensions, and their relationships are assessed using correlation and regression analyses, as well as typological comparisons. The findings indicate a strong positive association between economic integration and social protection (Pearson's r = 0.812, p < 0.01). In contrast, social integration shows no statistically significant association with either economic participation (r = −0.486, p = 0.155) or welfare engagement (r = −0.150, p = 0.680), suggesting that this dimension may operate independently of the other two at the country level. The typology of hosting countries, based on comparisons of economic integration and social protection indices, identifies four distinct integration types shaped by national institutional contexts. It is found that the “high-integration - high-protection” model prevails in half of the observed countries, in contrast to a low-capacity type of refugees' inclusion characterized by deficits in both economic inclusion and welfare access. The results do not support the assumption that reliance on welfare undermines labour market integration; rather, the macro-level data suggest that access to social protection co-occurs with higher economic participation.