The impact of wildfires on US insurance firms: Evidence for the costliest wildfire in California

IF 3.4 3区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-05-23 DOI:10.1016/j.qref.2026.102160

António Miguel Martins , Bruno Albuquerque , Luís Sardinha , Nuno Moutinho

引用次数: 0

Abstract

This research study the short-term effect of the costliest wildfire in California (January 2025) on the US insurance industry. Employing an event study, we find a negative impact for Property & Casualty Insurance firms. This result agrees with damage hypothesis or claim effect, which argues that damage caused by catastrophic events results in a reduction of insurer market value due to insufficient ex ante premium to absorb the damage claims. Our study also shows that the level of loss, premiums, underwriting exposure, profitability, and leverage are significant determinants in the magnitude of the insurer’s stock market reaction.

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野火对美国保险公司的影响：加州最昂贵野火的证据

本研究研究了加州最昂贵的野火（2025年1月）对美国保险业的短期影响。通过事件研究，我们发现了对财产保险公司的负面影响。这一结果与损害假设或索赔效应相一致。损害假设或索赔效应认为，由于事前保费不足以吸收损害索赔，灾难性事件造成的损害导致保险公司市值下降。我们的研究还表明，损失水平、保费、承保风险、盈利能力和杠杆是保险公司股票市场反应程度的重要决定因素。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

6.00

自引率

2.90%

发文量

118

期刊介绍： The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance (QREF) attracts and publishes high quality manuscripts that cover topics in the areas of economics, financial economics and finance. The subject matter may be theoretical, empirical or policy related. Emphasis is placed on quality, originality, clear arguments, persuasive evidence, intelligent analysis and clear writing. At least one Special Issue is published per year. These issues have guest editors, are devoted to a single theme and the papers have well known authors. In addition we pride ourselves in being able to provide three to four article "Focus" sections in most of our issues.