Millennials’ Acceptance of License Plate Number–Based Driving Restrictions in Shanghai: Integrating Value–Belief–Norm Theory and Policy-Specific Beliefs

Abstract

License plate number–based driving restriction (LPR) has been widely adopted in Chinese cities to mitigate traffic congestion and air pollution, yet its public acceptability remains contested. Existing studies have mainly examined acceptance in cities where LPR has already been implemented, while relatively little attention has been paid to acceptance in a preimplementation context and to the combined roles of environmental values and policy-specific perceptions, particularly among millennials. Taking Shanghai as a case city, this study examines millennials’ acceptance of a proposed LPR policy by integrating value–belief–norm (VBN) theory with policy-specific beliefs, including perceived fairness, perceived effectiveness, and perceived freedom, into a unified analytical framework. Based on questionnaire data and structural equation modeling, the results show that perceived fairness and perceived effectiveness are the strongest determinants of policy acceptance, while willingness for low-carbon travel also plays a positive but smaller role. Perceived freedom does not directly affect acceptance but exerts significant indirect effects through fairness and effectiveness. Further multigroup analysis reveals notable generational differences: For the post-90s cohort, acceptance is jointly shaped by policy perceptions and willingness for low-carbon travel, whereas for the post-80s cohort, perceived fairness plays the dominant role. By examining LPR acceptance in a preimplementation context and exploring generational heterogeneity through the combined lens of VBN theory and policy-specific beliefs, this study enriches the discussion of the mechanisms underlying policy acceptance. The findings also offer practical implications for designing fair, effective, and socially acceptable transportation demand management policies in Chinese megacities.