How Does Temporary Labor Migration Affect Voting Behavior and Political Polarization? Evidence From the USA

IF 2.2 4区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Economics & Politics Pub Date : 2026-06-04 Epub Date: 2026-01-28 DOI:10.1111/ecpo.70038

Dariia Mykhailyshyna

引用次数: 0

Abstract

In this article, I examine how temporary labor migration affects political outcomes using microdata on H2A and H2B temporary work visas. I construct a Bartik-type instrument for the number of temporary labor migrants in each county and merge this data with election results and measures of political polarization. My results suggest that temporary labor migration decreases the vote share of anti-immigration parties and far-right political polarization while increasing far-left polarization. This study contributes to the literature by demonstrating that temporary migration affects political outcomes differently from previously studied migration types.

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临时劳动力迁移如何影响投票行为和政治两极分化？来自美国的证据

在本文中，我使用H2A和H2B临时工作签证的微数据来研究临时劳动力迁移如何影响政治结果。我构建了一个bartik类型的工具来计算每个县的临时劳务移民数量，并将这些数据与选举结果和政治两极分化的措施相结合。我的研究结果表明，临时劳动力迁移降低了反移民政党的选票份额和极右翼政治两极分化，同时增加了极左两极分化。本研究通过证明临时移民对政治结果的影响不同于先前研究的移民类型，为文献做出了贡献。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Economics & Politics Multiple-

CiteScore

2.40

自引率

10.00%

发文量

期刊介绍： Economics & Politics focuses on analytical political economy, broadly defined as the study of economic and political phenomena and policy in models that include political processes, institutions and markets. The journal is the source for innovative theoretical and empirical work on the intersection of politics and economics, at both domestic and international levels, and aims to promote new approaches on how these forces interact to affect political outcomes and policy choices, economic performance and societal welfare. Economics & Politics is a vital source of information for economists, academics and students, providing: - Analytical political economics - International scholarship - Accessible & thought-provoking articles - Creative inter-disciplinary analysis