Socioeconomic Development, COVID-19, and Visual Health in Chinese Youth: A 30-Year Trend and Frontier Analysis of the Burden of Blindness Due to Refractive Error.
Yihan Zhang, Qixuan Tang, Shenyu Wang, Jiaying Liu, He Li, Zhaohuai Li, Wenru Su
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引用次数: 0
Abstract
Purpose: To evaluate long-term trends of refractive error-related blindness in Chinese children and adolescents (1990-2021) and project future trajectories to 2035, assessing impacts of COVID-19 and socioeconomic development.
Methods: Retrospective and predictive analysis using Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 data. Primary outcomes were age-specific prevalence and DALY rates in youth (<20 years). Secondary outcomes included age-standardized rates, EAPCs, decomposition components, and projections via BAPC and ARIMA models.
Results: Refractive error-related blindness affected 26.97 million individuals in China (1990-2021), including nearly 3 million youth. Primary outcomes showed consistent increases in age-specific prevalence (0-14 years: +15.0%; 15-19 years: +16.8%). Secondary analyses revealed declining age-standardized rates (ASPR EAPC: -0.18%), with population aging as the dominant driver (83.4-93.0%). During COVID-19, adolescent prevalence declined sharply (-10.61%). ARIMA projections suggest a turning point, with youth prevalence expected to decline by 30.5-36.3% by 2036. Global analysis revealed >10-fold variation in adolescent burden across countries.
Conclusion: Despite declining age-standardized rates, rising youth prevalence demands targeted interventions. Encouraging projections suggest delayed policy impacts, while COVID-19 disruptions highlight health system vulnerabilities. Prioritizing early screening and adolescent-focused strategies remains critical.
期刊介绍：
Ophthalmic Epidemiology is dedicated to the publication of original research into eye and vision health in the fields of epidemiology, public health and the prevention of blindness. Ophthalmic Epidemiology publishes editorials, original research reports, systematic reviews and meta-analysis articles, brief communications and letters to the editor on all subjects related to ophthalmic epidemiology. A broad range of topics is suitable, such as: evaluating the risk of ocular diseases, general and specific study designs, screening program implementation and evaluation, eye health care access, delivery and outcomes, therapeutic efficacy or effectiveness, disease prognosis and quality of life, cost-benefit analysis, biostatistical theory and risk factor analysis. We are looking to expand our engagement with reports of international interest, including those regarding problems affecting developing countries, although reports from all over the world potentially are suitable. Clinical case reports, small case series (not enough for a cohort analysis) articles and animal research reports are not appropriate for this journal.
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