Clinical Characteristics, Risk Factors, and Predictors of Fatal Outcomes and Prolonged Hospitalization of Crimean-Congo Hemorrhagic Fever Cases in Basrah, Iraq.

Abstract

Background: The impact of climate change on birds' migration and ticks' reservoir habits is contributing to the spread of Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever (CCHF), caused by CCHF virus (CCHFV), to new continents and countries. CCHF is endemic to the Eastern Mediterranean Region, including Iraq, and is witnessing a substantial surge in confirmed cases with considerable disparity and gaps in managing CCHF cases. The increasing CCHF spread across Asia, Africa, and Europe, including Spain and Turkey, highlights the danger of its expansion. Developing high-confidence diagnostic criteria, identifying risk factors, and accurate predictors of CCHF outcomes are critical to managing suspected and confirmed cases of CCHF and to reducing the current case fatality rate of CCHF, which is the goal of this study.

Methods: We completed a retrospective evaluation of 61 confirmed cases of CCHF in Basrah (Iraq). The cases were screened according to the clinical presentation, and CCHF cases were identified by ELISA and validated by PCR. Data was analyzed using SPSS version 22. T-tests, chi-square/Fisher exact tests, and Pearson's correlation were used, with significance set at p < 0.05 and high significance at p < 0.01.

Results: We found that repeated exposure to animals during animal slaughtering was a significant risk factor. In addition, 5% of the patients with confirmed CCHF, mainly from rural areas, reported exposure to rats. Clinical presentations included fever, headache, gastrointestinal problems, eye and orbital symptoms, and hemorrhagic complications. Predictors of death included advanced age, decreased platelet counts, and neuropsychiatric symptoms such as delusions and confusion.

Conclusions: Our findings identify clinical and laboratory features of CCHF cases in Iraq, which will help to implement the most effective interventions to manage CCHF cases and protect the public in all Iraqi governorates. In summary, this study highlights a recent and significant rise in CCHF cases in Basrah Governorate, Iraq. Notably, 5% of confirmed cases reported contact with rats. The paper also proposes diagnostic criteria and identifies key predictors of mortality to support improved clinical management of CCHF. These findings underscore the urgent need for strengthened public health interventions, including enhanced infection prevention and control measures, increased awareness, and improved surveillance systems. The findings have important implications for improving control procedures, guiding therapeutic development, informing vaccine strategies, and supporting evidence-based policy alongside future research efforts.