Air quality, health, and economic effects of land use and land cover changes in southeast Asia in the 21st century: a modelling study

IF 20.5 1区医学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Lancet Planetary Health Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-05-25 DOI:10.1016/j.lanplh.2026.101457

Yefu Gu PhD , Tingting Fang PhD , Yanbin Xu PhD , Xialei Duan PhD , Janice Ser Huay Lee PhD , Wenjun Zhu PhD , Yiwen Zeng PhD , Prof Steve Hung Lam Yim PhD

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Background

Southeast Asia has had substantial land use and land cover changes (LULCCs) in recent decades, affecting air quality, human health, and economic development through biogeophysical and biogeochemical cycles. However, little research has examined the combined effects of different LULCC types and impact pathways comprehensively. We aimed to provide a holistic understanding of how LULCCs across southeast Asia in the 21st century have led to changes in air quality and the consequential effects on human health and the economy.

Methods

In this modelling study, we used a regional meteorology–air quality coupled model (WRF–CMAQ) to assess LULCC effects from 2001 to 2018 on the concentrations of surface PM_2·5 and O₃ through biogeophysical and biogeochemical pathways. The model was configured at a 30 × 30 km grid size throughout southeast Asia. We used a series of concentration–response models to estimate excess deaths associated with the changes in air pollution concentration caused by LULCCs. The economic implications of these health effects were quantified with age-specific value-of-statistical-life and cost-of-illness approaches.

Findings

LULCCs in southeast Asia were associated with 13 000 excess deaths (95% CI 11 000–14 000) in 2018 alone, resulting in US$7·79 billion losses (6·24–9·69). Forest degradation and deforestation was the primary driver, accounting for 29·7% of the burden. Furthermore, more than 60·0% of effects occurred through the biogeophysical pathway.

Interpretation

LULCCs in southeast Asia are degrading air quality, causing thousands of excess deaths and billions of dollars in economic losses, with forest degradation and deforestation being the primary driver. The findings emphasise the need for strategic land management to improve environmental conditions and public health, and support sustainable economic development in the area, particularly in the countries most affected, such as Indonesia, Viet Nam, and Thailand.

Funding

Ministry of Education Singapore and Tsao Family Foundation.

查看原文本刊更多论文

21世纪东南亚土地利用和土地覆盖变化的空气质量、健康和经济影响：一项模拟研究。

背景：近几十年来，东南亚发生了大量土地利用和土地覆盖变化（lulcc），通过生物地球物理和生物地球化学循环影响空气质量、人类健康和经济发展。然而，很少有研究全面地考察了不同LULCC类型和影响途径的综合效应。我们的目的是全面了解21世纪东南亚地区的低碳污染如何导致空气质量的变化及其对人类健康和经济的影响。方法：采用区域气象-空气质量耦合模式（WRF-CMAQ），通过生物地球物理和生物地球化学途径评估2001 - 2018年LULCC对地表pm5和O3浓度的影响。该模型在整个东南亚被配置为30 × 30公里的网格大小。我们使用了一系列浓度响应模型来估计与低碳污染引起的空气污染浓度变化相关的超额死亡。这些健康影响的经济含义用特定年龄的统计寿命价值和疾病成本方法进行了量化。研究结果：仅在2018年，东南亚的低致死率感染就与13,000例额外死亡（95% CI 11,000 - 14,000）相关，造成77.9亿美元的损失（6.24 - 9.69）。森林退化和毁林是主要驱动力，占29.7%。此外，超过60%的效应是通过生物地球物理途径发生的。解释：东南亚的低碳污染正在使空气质量恶化，造成数千人额外死亡和数十亿美元的经济损失，其中森林退化和森林砍伐是主要驱动因素。研究结果强调需要进行战略性土地管理，以改善环境条件和公共卫生，并支持该地区的可持续经济发展，特别是在受影响最严重的国家，如印度尼西亚、越南和泰国。资助：新加坡教育部和曹氏家族基金会。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Lancet Planetary Health Multiple-

CiteScore

28.40

自引率

2.30%

发文量

272

审稿时长

8 weeks

期刊介绍： The Lancet Planetary Health is a gold Open Access journal dedicated to investigating and addressing the multifaceted determinants of healthy human civilizations and their impact on natural systems. Positioned as a key player in sustainable development, the journal covers a broad, interdisciplinary scope, encompassing areas such as poverty, nutrition, gender equity, water and sanitation, energy, economic growth, industrialization, inequality, urbanization, human consumption and production, climate change, ocean health, land use, peace, and justice. With a commitment to publishing high-quality research, comment, and correspondence, it aims to be the leading journal for sustainable development in the face of unprecedented dangers and threats.