Heterogeneous causal mediation analysis using Bayesian additive regression trees.

Abstract

Causal mediation analysis provides insights into the mechanisms through which treatments affect outcomes. While mediation effects often vary across individuals, most existing methods focus solely on population-average effects, overlooking individual-level heterogeneity. To address this limitation, we propose a Bayesian regression tree ensemble method that flexibly models nonlinear relationships and captures treatment-by-mediator interactions in the mediation process. Using hierarchical posterior sampling, our approach provides credible intervals with nominal coverage rates for inferring heterogeneous mediation effects. Additionally, we leverage regression tree summaries to identify subgroups with distinct mediation effects and employ SHapley Additive exPlanation values to highlight key moderators and their influence on the mediation process. Comprehensive simulations demonstrate the method's accuracy in estimating and inferring heterogeneous mediation effects. Finally, we apply our method to investigate the heterogeneous mediation role of Alzheimer's disease pathology burden in the effect of apolipoprotein E genotype on late-life cognition.