Driving factors and peak pathways for production-based embodied carbon emission generated by China's light industry international trade

Abstract

China has set clear carbon reduction targets, yet the key driving factors and carbon peaking pathways of production-based embodied carbon emissions (PECE) in the international trade of China's light industry remain insufficiently identified. To fill these gaps, this study employed the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index with Additive Decomposition model based on a two-level decomposition method to separate five driving factors that influence PECE in China's light industries, and used an extended Markov model to forecast PECE trends from 2023 to 2030. The results show that carbon emission intensity and export scale are the dominant drivers. Among 16 sub-industries, I3 presents a prominent emission reduction effect, while I7 is the main contributor to emission growth. Among five emission reduction scenarios, the coordinated development scenario (A5) performs best, with PECE peaking at 1745.54 Mt in 2025. These findings provide empirical support for optimizing trade strategies and advancing the low-carbon structural adjustment of China's light industry.