Tourist heterogeneity in carbon compensation: A two-stage framework for sustainable island tourism policy

IF 4.1 Q1 HOSPITALITY, LEISURE, SPORT & TOURISM

Annals of Tourism Research Empirical Insights Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-05-17 DOI:10.1016/j.annale.2026.100222

Aythami Santana-Padrón , Yen E. Lam-González , Javier de León

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Abstract

Small island tourism destinations face a paradox: prosperity depends on the natural assets that tourism threatens. Current compensation policies fail by treating tourists identically through single-stage frameworks that conflate participation barriers with contribution intensity. Using stated preference data from 70,930 Canary Islands tourists, hurdle models with bootstrap validation separate participation (Stage 1: complementary log-log) from contribution intensity (Stage 2: OLS) across four compensation levels (<5% to >20% of trip expenditure). Education increases participation yet reduces contribution intensity (€ − 0.23 to €-6.63); near-zero residual correlation (ρ = 0.0004, p = 0.955) confirms distinct mechanisms govern each stage. Progressive taxation aligned with spending capacity generates €770.4 M versus €267.9 M from flat rates—a 188% revenue increase—transforming compensation into a self-financing mechanism requiring expenditure proxies and machine learning for full implementation.

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碳补偿中的游客异质性：可持续岛屿旅游政策的两阶段框架

小岛屿旅游目的地面临着一个悖论：繁荣取决于旅游业所威胁的自然资产。目前的补偿政策失败的原因是，通过单一阶段的框架，将参与障碍与贡献强度混为一谈，对游客一视同仁。使用来自70,930名加那利群岛游客的陈述偏好数据，具有自举验证的障碍模型将参与（阶段1：互补对数-对数）与贡献强度（阶段2:OLS）在四个补偿水平（旅行支出的<；5%至>；20%）中分开。教育提高了参与率，但降低了贡献强度（- 0.23欧元至-6.63欧元）；残差相关性接近于零（ρ = 0.0004, p = 0.955）证实了不同的机制支配着每个阶段。与支出能力相匹配的累进税产生7.704亿欧元，而统一税率产生2.679亿欧元——收入增长188%——将补偿转变为自我融资机制，需要支出代理和机器学习才能全面实施。

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