A review of approaches to modelling agricultural emissions

Abstract

Agricultural greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are a cornerstone of the global sustainability challenge, yet modelling their impacts for effective policy design remains complex and lacks consensus. This paper provides a comparative assessment of eight prominent simulation equilibrium models, focusing on how modellers consider agricultural greenhouse gas emissions, offering policymakers essential insights into the choice of economic tools for advising mitigation strategies. As the agricultural sector faces increasing pressure from rising emissions and new regulatory frameworks, models must evolve to capture the multi-layered interactions between regulatory and trade frameworks. The review highlights a modelling landscape where divergent treatments of agricultural inputs (land, capital, intermediate goods, and technology) lead to heterogeneous simulation results. Key findings suggest that reliance on exogenous emission coefficients and a lack of granularity in capital measurement may bias policy outcomes. For regulators, bridging these methodological gaps is critical for designing “leakage-proof” policies balancing ambitious climate targets with economic resilience and food security. Finally, more comprehensive data and interdisciplinary dialogue are required to ensure that agrifood policies are grounded in realistic, harmonised simulations.