Potential global distribution of Pochazia shantungensis (Chou & Lu, 1977), under current and future climatic scenarios based on an optimised MaxEnt model.

Abstract

Pochazia shantungensis (Chou & Lu, 1977) is a polyphagous planthopper first identified in China. This species has now spread rapidly across East Asia and Europe, resulting in significant economic losses in agricultural and forestry production in many countries. In order to illustrate the intrinsic connection between climate change and the geographical expansion of this pest, the optimised MaxEnt species distribution model was used to analyse the potential distribution areas of P. shantungensis under current and future climate scenarios (2041-2100), using CMIP-6 projections (SSP126 and SSP585). MaxEnt modelling indicates that the area suitable for P. shantungensis will likely expand by 8-18% by 2100 under the SSP126 scenario (48,100 × 10⁴ km²) but contract under the SSP585 scenario (47,600 × 10⁴ km²) compared to the current suitable habitat area (43,900 × 10⁴ km²). Therefore, the range expansion of this species is predicted to extend from Asia to temperate regions globally, excluding Antarctica. This study provides baseline data for pest surveillance, early warning systems, quarantine, and management strategies in high-risk areas.