Uncovering the hidden role of peri-urban vegetation in modulating urban precipitation

Abstract

Peri-urban vegetation influences urban hydroclimates, yet its role in shaping urban precipitation remains understudied due to binary urban–non-urban framings, the limited representation of peri-urban landscapes in models and datasets, and a predominant focus on intra-urban areas. Here we integrate satellite-derived vegetation trends with an evapotranspiration model and an atmospheric moisture-tracking model to quantify how peri-urban vegetation change affects urban precipitation within 1,029 cities worldwide. We identify a spatially coupled hydroclimatic mechanism in which vegetation-driven shifts in peri-urban evapotranspiration modulate urban precipitation via atmospheric moisture transfer. Although these changes contribute only 1.9% of annual urban precipitation, they account for 18.3% of its long-term increase, indicating a disproportionate and systematic influence on urban hydroclimate trajectories. We further find that this coupling strengthens in cities with more abundant surrounding vegetation, wind-aligned greening and lower background humidity. Our findings clarify how peri-urban land–atmosphere interactions regulate urban climates and highlight the need to integrate peri-urban ecosystems into climate-resilience planning. This study shows that greening peri-urban areas boosts rainfall within cities, revealing their hidden role in shaping intra-urban precipitation and supporting climate-resilience planning.