Future habitat shifts of pollinating insects in the climate-sensitive transition zone of the Qinling-Daba-Dabie Mountains, central China.

Abstract

As a vital functional group for ecosystem health, pollinating insects face global declines due to high climate sensitivity. The Qinling-Daba-Dabie Mountains, situated at the Oriental-Palearctic ecotone, are a key climate-sensitive biodiversity hotspot in Chinese fauna. However, research on pollinator habitat dynamics in this region remains scarce. In this study, we selected 4 pollinators: Hymenoptera bees (Hy-A), Diptera syrphid flies (Di-S), other major pollinating Diptera (Di-AC), and Lepidoptera butterflies (Le-R). The MaxEnt model combined with ecological niche analysis was utilized to simulate macroscopic potential climatically suitable habitats and climatic niche overlap under current conditions and future climate scenarios (SSP1-26 and SSP5-85 for the 2030s and 2050s). Results indicate that, under current conditions, high-suitability areas of these pollinators are located along the main ridges of the Qinling, Daba, and Dabie Mountains. Future warming is projected to cause significant habitat contraction for most groups, with centroids shifting northwestward or toward higher elevations. Le-R exhibited stability or slight expansion in certain scenarios, likely due to strong dispersal capabilities and thermal tolerance. Conversely, Di-S displayed the highest habitat vulnerability, suffering the most severe habitat loss and climatic niche divergence. The mid-to-high elevations of the Qinling and Daba Mountains function as core refugia, whereas low-elevation margins face severe degradation, particularly under high-emission scenarios (SSP5-85). This study represents the first investigation into the ecological responses of these pollinators in sensitive zones, offering a scientific foundation for biodiversity conservation, optimizing protected area networks, and strengthening regional cooperation.