Stem borer pest outbreaks in cereal crops are associated with summer drought under climate change: A national-scale study.

Abstract

Background: Stem borer pests can cause substantial economic losses in growing Poaceae crops by damaging their stalks, where their concealed boring habitats shield them from natural enemies, human detection, and limit pesticide penetration. Studying the influence of climate factors on these pests provides critical information for sustainable pest control and outbreak prediction under global changes. This study systematically investigated the field outbreak of important stem borers in corn, rice, and wheat: Ostrinia furnacalis Guenée (Lepidoptera: Crambidae), Chilo suppressalis Walker (Lepidoptera: Crambidae), Scirpophaga incertulas Walker (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae), and Meromyza saltatrix Linnaeus (Diptera: Chloropidae) in China from 1987 to 2019 in relations to climate change.

Results: Across the studied species, we found that monthly precipitation has regional and species-specific effects on the outbreaks of borers. Furthermore, we conducted meta-regressions of coefficients of models to summarize general effects of seasonal climate changes on borer pest outbreaks in 3 grain crops and sugarcane across all study regions. We found a universal phenomenon across study species in subtropical areas that annual outbreaks of borers were more severe with drier summers.

Conclusion: This study not only provides critical knowledge for understanding stem borer responses to climate change in Poaceae crops but also establishes a forecasting framework for pest outbreaks. Our findings establish a scientific outbreak alarm for major pest outbreaks in main cereal crops and sugar crops. © 2026 Society of Chemical Industry.