Energy resilience in the Arctic states: An integrated assessment and policy implications for sustainable transitions

IF 12.7 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

Geoscience frontiers Pub Date : 2026-07-01 Epub Date: 2026-04-18 DOI:10.1016/j.gsf.2026.102335

Rongrong Li , Ugur Korkut Pata , Mengqi Ma , Zhanna Viktorovna Pisarenko , Valeriy Vladimirovich Kadet , Qiang Wang

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Abstract

Energy resilience has become a central requirement for sustainable energy transitions at high latitudes, where climate hazards and geopolitical shocks intersect. This study develops an integrated measurement–evolution–mechanism framework to assess energy resilience in the eight Arctic states from 2014 to 2023, combining a three-dimension indicator system (resistance, adaptability, recovery), projection-pursuit–based composite scoring, distributional dynamics, and data-driven driver identification. Using official statistics, we estimate annual national resilience scores, track spatiotemporal patterns, and quantify the relative importance of structural, economic, and governance factors. Three main results emerge. First, the region exhibits a steady rise in resilience, but persistent stratification: the United States and Russia remain consistently highest; Canada and Denmark are stable at mid-high levels; Finland trends downward; Sweden, Iceland, and Norway remain lower, with renewed divergence after 2021. Second, three archetypes are identified: a recovery–resistance–dominated group with weak adaptability (Iceland, Sweden, Finland); an adaptability-advantaged group (Canada, United States, Denmark, Russia); and a low comprehensive-resilience case (Norway). Third, energy import dependence is the dominant determinant, followed by green policy intensity, government effectiveness, and human capital investment; the random forest model explains approximately 88% of cross-country variation, underscoring robust, nonlinear driver effects. Policy priorities include reducing import exposure and single-fuel risks, accelerating renewable and flexibility investments, diversifying industrial structures, and strengthening fiscal–institutional capacity and education to support adaptive and rapid recovery. The framework is transferable beyond the Arctic, linking quantitative diagnostics to actionable pathways for renewable-led, climate-robust energy systems.

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北极国家的能源弹性：可持续转型的综合评估和政策影响

在气候灾害和地缘政治冲击交织的高纬度地区，能源弹性已成为可持续能源转型的核心要求。本研究开发了一个综合测量-进化-机制框架，结合三维指标体系（阻力、适应性、恢复）、基于投影-追求的复合评分、分布动力学和数据驱动的驱动因素识别，评估2014年至2023年八个北极国家的能源弹性。利用官方统计数据，我们估算了年度国家恢复力得分，跟踪了时空模式，并量化了结构、经济和治理因素的相对重要性。主要有三个结果。首先，该地区的恢复力稳步上升，但分层现象持续存在：美国和俄罗斯始终保持最高水平；加拿大和丹麦稳定在中高水平；芬兰呈下降趋势；瑞典、冰岛和挪威仍处于较低水平，2021年后将再次出现分化。其次，我们确定了三种原型：以恢复抵抗为主导、适应性较弱的群体（冰岛、瑞典、芬兰）；适应性优势群体（加拿大、美国、丹麦、俄罗斯）；综合恢复力较低的案例（挪威）。第三，能源进口依赖是主要决定因素，其次是绿色政策强度、政府效率和人力资本投资；随机森林模型解释了大约88%的跨国变化，强调了强大的非线性驱动效应。政策重点包括减少进口风险和单一燃料风险，加快可再生能源和灵活性投资，实现产业结构多样化，以及加强财政机构能力和教育，以支持适应性和快速复苏。该框架可转移到北极以外，将定量诊断与可再生能源主导的气候稳健能源系统的可行途径联系起来。

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来源期刊

Geoscience frontiers Earth and Planetary Sciences-General Earth and Planetary Sciences

CiteScore

17.80

自引率

3.40%

发文量

147

审稿时长

35 days

期刊介绍： Geoscience Frontiers (GSF) is the Journal of China University of Geosciences (Beijing) and Peking University. It publishes peer-reviewed research articles and reviews in interdisciplinary fields of Earth and Planetary Sciences. GSF covers various research areas including petrology and geochemistry, lithospheric architecture and mantle dynamics, global tectonics, economic geology and fuel exploration, geophysics, stratigraphy and paleontology, environmental and engineering geology, astrogeology, and the nexus of resources-energy-emissions-climate under Sustainable Development Goals. The journal aims to bridge innovative, provocative, and challenging concepts and models in these fields, providing insights on correlations and evolution.