Hongsheng Chen, Wentao Xiang, Zihao Wang, Junle Huang, Li Li
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引用次数: 0
Abstract
In conventional air pollution research, natural dispersion, industrial emissions, and ecological absorption are typically regarded as the dominant mechanisms shaping PM2.5 exposure. However, under conditions of intensified human intervention in the Earth’s surface, this logic is undergoing a paradigmatic shift. Drawing on multi-regional panel data from China spanning 2015–2022, this study develops a machine learning model with PM2.5 concentrations as the outcome variable. By incorporating the Human Footprint Index (HF), alongside a suite of ecological, meteorological, and socio-economic variables, the analysis seeks to identify the associated mechanisms underlying pollution anomalies. The results indicate that: (1) at the global scale, the Human Footprint Index (HF) surpasses all natural and socio-economic variables, emerging as the primary determinant of PM2.5 exposure; (2) the effect of HF exhibits pronounced regional heterogeneity, with a strong positive structure observed in Central and Northeastern China, while in the Eastern region the effect tends towards neutrality due to more favourable dispersion conditions and intensified governance, and although the overall contribution in the Western region remains relatively low; (3) the marginal pollution effect of HF demonstrates a nonlinear threshold pattern, appearing buffered or insensitive at low-intensity levels, but rising sharply in pollution risk once a critical threshold is exceeded. The findings suggest that the explanatory logic of air pollution is shifting towards a new paradigm centred on the Human Footprint. Accordingly, this study advocates the development of a pollution early-warning and governance framework that is sensitive to the intensity of human activity and grounded in the identification of spatial threshold effects. The analysis further demonstrates the theoretical and practical potential of interpretable machine learning for uncovering pollution-related mechanisms and informing regionally differentiated policy design.
期刊介绍：
Description
The journal has an applied focus: it actively promotes the importance of geographical research in real world settings
It is policy-relevant: it seeks both a readership and contributions from practitioners as well as academics
The substantive foundation is spatial analysis: the use of quantitative techniques to identify patterns and processes within geographic environments
The combination of these points, which are fully reflected in the naming of the journal, establishes a unique position in the marketplace.
RationaleA geographical perspective has always been crucial to the understanding of the social and physical organisation of the world around us. The techniques of spatial analysis provide a powerful means for the assembly and interpretation of evidence, and thus to address critical questions about issues such as crime and deprivation, immigration and demographic restructuring, retailing activity and employment change, resource management and environmental improvement. Many of these issues are equally important to academic research as they are to policy makers and Applied Spatial Analysis and Policy aims to close the gap between these two perspectives by providing a forum for discussion of applied research in a range of different contexts
Topical and interdisciplinaryIncreasingly government organisations, administrative agencies and private businesses are requiring research to support their ‘evidence-based’ strategies or policies. Geographical location is critical in much of this work which extends across a wide range of disciplines including demography, actuarial sciences, statistics, public sector planning, business planning, economics, epidemiology, sociology, social policy, health research, environmental management.
FocusApplied Spatial Analysis and Policy will draw on applied research from diverse problem domains, such as transport, policing, education, health, environment and leisure, in different international contexts. The journal will therefore provide insights into the variations in phenomena that exist across space, it will provide evidence for comparative policy analysis between domains and between locations, and stimulate ideas about the translation of spatial analysis methods and techniques across varied policy contexts. It is essential to know how to measure, monitor and understand spatial distributions, many of which have implications for those with responsibility to plan and enhance the society and the environment in which we all exist.
Readership and Editorial BoardAs a journal focused on applications of methods of spatial analysis, Applied Spatial Analysis and Policy will be of interest to scholars and students in a wide range of academic fields, to practitioners in government and administrative agencies and to consultants in private sector organisations. The Editorial Board reflects the international and multidisciplinary nature of the journal.
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