Hypoxia and DNA-Repair Radiosensitivity Signatures Are Associated with Radiotherapy-Modified Survival in TCGA Breast Cancer, with External Prognostic Validation of the Hypoxia Score in METABRIC.

Abstract

Radiotherapy (RT) is one of the main treatments for breast cancer, but response varies between patients. Tumour hypoxia and intrinsic radiosensitivity are major determinants of response to RT. Using TCGA-BRCA, a 563-gene hypoxia meta-signature was built by combining curated hypoxia gene sets from MSigDB with published hypoxia metagenes (Buffa, Winter, Elvidge, Fardin, and related sets). After Cox screening and penalised regression, a simple three-gene hypoxia score (CP, GPC3, STC1) was derived. In parallel, based on DSB-repair factors highlighted by Mladenov et al. as key regulators of intrinsic radiosensitivity, a four-gene radiosensitivity (RS) signature (ATR, RPA2, BLM, MRE11A) was trained using only RT-treated patients. In TCGA, both signatures were prognostic and showed significant interaction with RT status in Cox models. The hypoxia score was strongly associated with worse outcomes in RT-untreated patients, but this effect was much weaker in RT-treated patients (Hypoxia × RT HR = 0.009, p = 0.044). The RS score showed a similarly strong interaction with RT (RS × RT HR = 0.011, p = 0.003). When we combined both signatures into one interaction model, it gave the best performance (C-index = 0.785), and both interaction terms stayed independently significant. The hypoxia score was then validated externally in METABRIC (N = 1979; 1143 events), where it remained associated with overall survival, although more weakly than in TCGA (HR = 1.34, 95% CI: 1.10-1.63; p = 0.0042). Overall, these results suggest that hypoxia and DSB-repair capacity capture two complementary sides of radiosensitivity and RT-modified survival patterns, and they support further prospective testing and validation in independent datasets with strong RT annotation.