Comparison of the Burden of Acne Vulgaris in China vs Globally: Insights from the Global Burden of Disease Study (2021) and Projections to 2050.

Abstract

Acne vulgaris (AV) poses a significant health challenge in China, adversely affecting patients' quality of life and mental health. Updated evidence on acne burden in China integrating temporal trends, China-global comparisons, change-point patterns, and future projections remains limited. This study aimed to provide an updated assessment of AVacne vulgaris burden in China, including temporal trends and future projections, and to clarify its public health implications. Using data from the 2021 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study, estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) for AVacne vulgaris were calculated for China and globally, while change-point patterns were assessed using joinpoint regression. An age-period-cohort (APC) analysis was subsequently performed, followed by Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) projection of China's AVacne vulgaris burden to 2050. From 1990 to 2021, the prevalence, incidence, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) associated with AVacne vulgaris in China exhibited sustained increases, outpacing global rates. APCAge-period-cohort analysis revealed a peak incidence at ages 10-14 years. Overall, the main burden was concentrated in adolescence. BAPCBayesian age-period-cohort projections indicated that China's AVacne vulgaris burden will continue to rise from 2022 to 2050,, with a disproportionately greater impact on females. These findings support prioritising evidence-based prevention, early recognition, and management strategies for adolescents and for females in China.