The Net Effective Radiative Forcing From Ozone-Depleting Substances and Its Uncertainty

IF 4.6 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

Geophysical Research Letters Pub Date : 2026-04-24 DOI:10.1029/2025gl119094

Luke M. Western, Keith P. Shine, William J. Collins

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

The direct effective radiative forcing (ERF) of long-lived ozone-depleting substances (ODS) is around 15%–20% of the pre-industrial to present-day ERF of

{CO}_{2} ${\text{CO}}_{2}$

, but their net ERF, including indirect chemical adjustments, remains poorly constrained. We use an adapted simple climate model, trained on bulk indirect ODS forcing from complex climate models, to quantify uncertainty in net ERF over time and the net ERF across individual ODS. We find that the direct ODS ERF in 2019 of 0.35 (0.31, 0.39) W

m^{- 2} ${\mathrm{m}}^{-2}$

is reduced to a net ERF of 0.11 (−0.02, 0.26) W

m^{- 2} ${\mathrm{m}}^{-2}$

when chemical adjustments are included. Most net ERF arises from CFC-12 and HCFC-22 (0.18 W

m^{- 2} ${\mathrm{m}}^{-2}$

), with chemical adjustments substantially reducing the net ERF of many other substances. Since the implementation of the Montreal Protocol, the total ODS net ERF has increased much less rapidly than the direct ERF.

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消耗臭氧物质的净有效辐射强迫及其不确定性

长寿命臭氧消耗物质（ODS）的直接有效辐射强迫（ERF）约为工业化前到现在CO2的ERF的15%-20%，但它们的净ERF，包括间接化学调整，仍然没有得到很好的约束。我们使用一个经适应的简单气候模型，对来自复杂气候模型的大量间接臭氧消耗物质强迫进行训练，量化净臭氧消耗物质随时间变化的不确定性和个别臭氧消耗物质的净臭氧消耗物质的不确定性。我们发现2019年的直接ODS ERF为0.35 (0.31,0.39)W m−2${\mathrm{m}}^{-2}$，当包括化学调整时，净ERF为0.11 (- 0.02,0.26)W m−2${\mathrm{m}}^{-2}$。大多数净ERF来自CFC-12和HCFC-22 (0.18 W m−2${\ mathm {m}}^{-2}$)，化学调整大大减少了许多其他物质的净ERF。自执行《蒙特利尔议定书》以来，消耗臭氧层物质净应急基金总额的增长速度远低于直接应急基金。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Geophysical Research Letters 地学-地球科学综合

CiteScore

9.00

自引率

9.60%

发文量

1588

审稿时长

2.2 months

期刊介绍： Geophysical Research Letters (GRL) publishes high-impact, innovative, and timely research on major scientific advances in all the major geoscience disciplines. Papers are communications-length articles and should have broad and immediate implications in their discipline or across the geosciences. GRLmaintains the fastest turn-around of all high-impact publications in the geosciences and works closely with authors to ensure broad visibility of top papers.