Identifying Priority Vegetation Zones for Floodplain Wetland Management Based on Hydrological and Meteorological Drivers

Abstract

While hydrology and meteorology influence floodplain wetland vegetation, their relative contributions and spatial patterns remain poorly quantified. Hydrological conditions, in particular, can be altered by anthropogenic activities such as damming. To improve the understanding of potential for human control of floodplain wetland vegetation, this study quantitatively assessed the drivers of vegetation dynamics in the Poyang Lake wetland from 2000 to 2023 through trend analysis and statistical modeling. Significantly increasing trends are detected in 58% of the wetland. Major abrupt changes in vegetation trends occurred in 2006, 2010 and 2019, coinciding with extreme hydrological and meteorological events. Hydrological factors are the primary drivers (61%), with average water level emerging as the most critical factor, indicating substantial potential for human regulation. Spatially, northern and central regions are more prone to hydrological regulation, while higher-elevation boundaries and eastern/southwestern regions respond primarily to meteorological factors. Scenario analysis of a proposed water conservancy project reveals that water level regulation produces distinct vegetation responses: lower-elevation areas experience suppression from prolonged inundation, while intermediate zones benefit from extended water availability. These findings provide a scientific basis for adaptive conservation that prioritizes hydrological interventions in hydrologically-controllable zones while maintaining natural processes in climate-sensitive regions.