Model-observation discrepancies in Arctic moisture intrusions: causes and pathways for improved simulation

IF 8.4 1区地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2026-04-24 DOI:10.1038/s41612-026-01400-0

Weiming Ma, Nicole Feldl, Hailong Wang, Gang Chen, Sandro W. Lubis, Yun Qian, Bryce E. Harrop

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Arctic moisture intrusions (MIs), narrow filaments of strong moisture transport, are key drivers of poleward moisture flux and Arctic weather extremes, yet their representation in climate models is poorly understood. Using a new Arctic MI detection algorithm, we document persistent biases across three CMIP generations (CMIP3–CMIP6): models overestimate MI occurrence over the Pacific sector and underestimate it over the Atlantic sector. These errors stem from misrepresented midlatitude westerly jets, with an equatorward North Atlantic jet associated with too few Atlantic MIs, and a poleward, weakened North Pacific jet linked to too many Pacific MIs. Experiments that correct sea surface temperature and sea ice concentration biases and increase atmospheric resolution improve jet structure and MI statistics, while a cloud-locking simulation indicates that better high-frequency cloud–radiation–circulation interactions can yield further gains. Our results clarify pathways to reducing long-standing MI and jet biases, providing guidance for improving simulations of Arctic and midlatitude climate.

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北极水汽侵入的模式观测差异：改进模拟的原因和途径

北极水汽侵入（MIs）是强水汽输送的狭窄细丝，是极地水汽通量和北极极端天气的关键驱动因素，但它们在气候模式中的表现却知之甚少。使用一种新的北极MI检测算法，我们记录了跨越三代CMIP （CMIP3-CMIP6）的持续偏差：模型高估了太平洋扇区MI的发生，低估了大西洋扇区MI的发生。这些错误源于对中纬度西风急流的错误描述，赤道方向的北大西洋急流与太少的大西洋MIs相关，而极地方向的北太平洋急流与太多的太平洋MIs相关。校正海面温度和海冰浓度偏差并提高大气分辨率的实验改善了射流结构和MI统计，而云锁定模拟表明，更好的高频云辐射-环流相互作用可以产生进一步的收益。我们的研究结果阐明了减少长期存在的MI和射流偏差的途径，为改进北极和中纬度气候的模拟提供了指导。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Earth and Planetary Sciences-Atmospheric Science

CiteScore

8.80

自引率

3.30%

发文量

审稿时长

21 weeks

期刊介绍： npj Climate and Atmospheric Science is an open-access journal encompassing the relevant physical, chemical, and biological aspects of atmospheric and climate science. The journal places particular emphasis on regional studies that unveil new insights into specific localities, including examinations of local atmospheric composition, such as aerosols. The range of topics covered by the journal includes climate dynamics, climate variability, weather and climate prediction, climate change, ocean dynamics, weather extremes, air pollution, atmospheric chemistry (including aerosols), the hydrological cycle, and atmosphere–ocean and atmosphere–land interactions. The journal welcomes studies employing a diverse array of methods, including numerical and statistical modeling, the development and application of in situ observational techniques, remote sensing, and the development or evaluation of new reanalyses.