Weathering the blue Economy: Climate change and fishery output in Somalia: Evidence from time series analysis (1975–2023)

Abstract

Fisheries are vital to Somalia's economy, nutrition, and livelihoods, yet their sustainability is increasingly threatened by climate variability. This study investigates the impact of five key climate variables, rainfall, air temperature, CO₂ emissions, sea surface temperature (SST), and wind speed, on fish production in Somalia using annual time-series data from 1975 to 2023, Using Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) and Canonical Cointegrating Regression (CCR) models to estimate short- and long-run relationships. The findings reveal that rainfall, CO₂ emissions, and SST significantly reduce fish production in both the short and long run, while wind speed has a consistently positive effect. Air temperature is statistically insignificant. These findings suggest that climate variability is a critical determinant of marine productivity in Somalia. Policy actions should prioritize climate-resilient fisheries management, investment in coastal infrastructure, and monitoring systems that track changes in sea temperature and wind regimes. Strengthening institutional capacity and regional cooperation on blue economy adaptation is essential for safeguarding livelihoods and food security in Somalia's fragile coastal zones.