Potential U.S. Tariffs and Vaccine Trade: An Analysis of Their Implications for Healthcare Quality

Abstract

Historically, the development of human vaccines has represented one of the greatest scientific advancements in global health, preventing over 154 million deaths since 1974. However, the Trump 2.0 administration's moves on global trade tariffs, coupled with the current head of the Department of Health and Human Services, who is known to be a vaccine skeptic, have raised concerns about the future of vaccination in the US. In this light, this study evaluates the potential implications of these tariff threats on human vaccines, using network analysis, machine learning, and quantile regression models with data from 2000 to 2022. Findings reveal that the US is one of the major players in the global vaccine trade, and its tariffs were found to have a significant influence on global vaccine demand and prices. One of the implications of these tariff-induced reductions in vaccine trade is the creation of conditions leading to shortages and undermining immunization rates. Thus, this study concludes that tariffs on vaccines could adversely affect healthcare quality and recommends careful consideration of tariff policies to avoid vaccine compromise. This is because evidence suggests that by fragmenting trade routes and raising costs, tariffs might impair the overall density and connectivity of the vaccine trade network. This causes delays in global vaccine delivery and increases reliance on a few central hubs. However, the analysis suggests that the United States can foster supply-chain collaboration frameworks to maintain its strategic position in the global vaccine trade.

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