{"title":"Sinking peatlands: Optimal control of subsidence","authors":"Suphi Sen, Dewy Verhoeven, Hans-Peter Weikard","doi":"10.1111/ajae.70010","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>Land subsidence threatens the living conditions of about 1.2 billion people worldwide in deltaic regions characterized by soft top soil. Economic activity in these areas requires lowering groundwater levels to keep the land sufficiently dry, which leaves future generations worse off by accelerating subsidence and increasing future costs. This paper provides a model that recognizes this trade-off and yields analytical expressions for the groundwater level paths that optimally manage the dynamics of subsidence in agricultural lands. Applying our model to the paradigm case of Dutch peatlands, we find that accounting for dynamic efficiency increases welfare by more than 2.5% compared to a myopic benchmark, and these gains can be about 10% within reasonable parameter ranges. Our results support current proposals to reduce subsidence, even without considering additional social benefits from avoided carbon dioxide emissions.</p>","PeriodicalId":55537,"journal":{"name":"American Journal of Agricultural Economics","volume":"108 3","pages":"926-953"},"PeriodicalIF":4.9000,"publicationDate":"2026-04-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ajae.70010","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"American Journal of Agricultural Economics","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/ajae.70010","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"2025/8/28 0:00:00","PubModel":"Epub","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
Land subsidence threatens the living conditions of about 1.2 billion people worldwide in deltaic regions characterized by soft top soil. Economic activity in these areas requires lowering groundwater levels to keep the land sufficiently dry, which leaves future generations worse off by accelerating subsidence and increasing future costs. This paper provides a model that recognizes this trade-off and yields analytical expressions for the groundwater level paths that optimally manage the dynamics of subsidence in agricultural lands. Applying our model to the paradigm case of Dutch peatlands, we find that accounting for dynamic efficiency increases welfare by more than 2.5% compared to a myopic benchmark, and these gains can be about 10% within reasonable parameter ranges. Our results support current proposals to reduce subsidence, even without considering additional social benefits from avoided carbon dioxide emissions.
期刊介绍：
The American Journal of Agricultural Economics provides a forum for creative and scholarly work on the economics of agriculture and food, natural resources and the environment, and rural and community development throughout the world. Papers should relate to one of these areas, should have a problem orientation, and should demonstrate originality and innovation in analysis, methods, or application. Analyses of problems pertinent to research, extension, and teaching are equally encouraged, as is interdisciplinary research with a significant economic component. Review articles that offer a comprehensive and insightful survey of a relevant subject, consistent with the scope of the Journal as discussed above, will also be considered. All articles published, regardless of their nature, will be held to the same set of scholarly standards.
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