Obesity-driven thyroid cancer burden in middle-aged and older populations: temporal trends and projected trajectories based on the Global Burden of Disease study.

Abstract

Introduction: High body mass index (BMI) in middle-aged and older individuals (≥40 years) is a leading risk factor for thyroid cancer-related morbidity and mortality; however, the quantifiable impact of elevated BMI on disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and mortality in ageing populations remains underexplored. This study comprehensively evaluated the global burden of thyroid cancer attributable to elevated BMI by integrating past epidemiological trends, demographic variability and risk attribution models, and provided relevant projected trajectories using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study.

Methods: We analysed mortality, DALYs, years of life lost (YLLs) and years lived with disability (YLDs). Temporal trends in disease burden from 1990 to 2021 were examined using linear regression models. Cluster analysis was used to assess region-specific burdens across GBD study regions. Finally, projections of future disease burden from 2022 to 2050 were generated using autoregressive integrated moving average and exponential smoothing models.

Results: In 2021, high BMI contributed to 5255 thyroid cancer-related deaths (age-standardised mortality rate: 0.06 per 100 000) and 144 955 DALYs (age-standardised rate: 1.68 per 100 000); women and low-middle Socio-demographic Index regions were identified as high-risk subgroups. Projections indicate continued increases in mortality and overall disease burden through 2050.

Conclusion: Substantial geographical heterogeneity in thyroid cancer burden was observed across GBD regions. Interventions targeting high-risk demographic groups and regions should be prioritised to reduce this growing disease burden.