Climate Risk and Green Productivity in African Agriculture: Challenges, Opportunities, and Policy Implications

IF 2 3区经济学 Q2 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY

Agribusiness Pub Date : 2026-04-10 Epub Date: 2025-09-09 DOI:10.1002/agr.70034

Su Liu, Bingjie Huang, Zhiyang Shen

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Abstract

As climate change intensifies global challenges, agricultural systems face escalating risks, with vulnerable zones like Africa bearing heightened exposure. Climate risks refer to the economic and financial impacts arising from extreme weather events and the global transition to a low-carbon economy. This study investigates how climate risk impacts Green Total Factor Productivity (GTFP) in African agriculture, using a balanced panel dataset with 630 observations from 30 African countries spanning from 2000 to 2020. The regression analysis reveals a significant stimulatory effect of climate risk on GTFP, primarily by fostering infrastructure development and accelerating digital transformation. Heterogeneity analysis further reveals that this effect is particularly pronounced in sub-Saharan Africa and in resource-dependent economies. Additionally, vulnerabilities related to water resources and infrastructure enhance the positive relationship between climate risk and GTFP. These findings offer a novel perspective on advancing sustainable and high-quality agricultural development in Africa in the face of climate challenges, providing a scientific basis for policy optimization and bolstering the resilience of African agriculture.

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非洲农业的气候风险和绿色生产力：挑战、机遇和政策影响

随着气候变化加剧全球挑战，农业系统面临的风险不断升级，非洲等脆弱地区面临的风险更高。气候风险是指极端天气事件和全球向低碳经济转型所带来的经济和金融影响。本研究利用一个平衡的面板数据集，研究了气候风险如何影响非洲农业的绿色全要素生产率（GTFP），该数据集包含来自30个非洲国家2000年至2020年的630个观测值。回归分析显示，气候风险对GTFP具有显著的刺激作用，主要是通过促进基础设施建设和加速数字化转型。异质性分析进一步表明，这种影响在撒哈拉以南非洲和资源依赖型经济体尤为明显。此外，水资源和基础设施相关脆弱性增强了气候风险与GTFP之间的正相关关系。这些发现为在面临气候挑战的情况下促进非洲农业的可持续和高质量发展提供了新的视角，为政策优化和增强非洲农业的抵御能力提供了科学依据。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Agribusiness 农林科学-食品科技

CiteScore

5.50

自引率

6.20%

发文量

审稿时长

6 months

期刊介绍： Agribusiness: An International Journal publishes research that improves our understanding of how food systems work, how they are evolving, and how public and/or private actions affect the performance of the global agro-industrial complex. The journal focuses on the application of economic analysis to the organization and performance of firms and markets in industrial food systems. Subject matter areas include supply and demand analysis, industrial organization analysis, price and trade analysis, marketing, finance, and public policy analysis. International, cross-country comparative, and within-country studies are welcome. To facilitate research the journal’s Forum section, on an intermittent basis, offers commentary and reports on business policy issues.