Spatial Economics for Granular Settings

IF 7.1 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Econometrica Pub Date : 2026-04-01 DOI:10.3982/ECTA19350

Jonathan I. Dingel, Felix Tintelnot

引用次数: 0

Abstract

We examine the application of quantitative spatial models to the growing body of fine spatial data used to study local economic outcomes. In granular settings in which people choose from a large set of potential residence-workplace pairs, observed outcomes in part reflect idiosyncratic choices. Using analytical examples, Monte Carlo simulations, and event studies of neighborhood employment booms, we demonstrate that calibration procedures that equate observed shares and modeled probabilities perform very poorly in these high-dimensional settings. Parsimonious specifications of spatial linkages deliver better counterfactual predictions. To quantify the uncertainty about counterfactual outcomes induced by the idiosyncratic component of individuals' decisions, we introduce a quantitative spatial model with a finite number of individuals. Applying this model to Amazon's proposed second headquarters in New York City reveals that its predicted consequences for most neighborhoods vary substantially across realizations of the individual idiosyncrasies.

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颗粒设置的空间经济学

我们研究了定量空间模型在用于研究地方经济成果的不断增长的精细空间数据中的应用。在人们从大量潜在的居住-工作配对中进行选择的细粒度设置中，观察到的结果部分反映了特殊的选择。通过分析实例、蒙特卡罗模拟和社区就业繁荣的事件研究，我们证明，在这些高维环境中，将观察到的份额和建模概率等同起来的校准程序表现得非常糟糕。空间联系的简约规范提供了更好的反事实预测。为了量化由个体决策的特质成分引起的反事实结果的不确定性，我们引入了一个具有有限数量个体的定量空间模型。将这一模型应用于亚马逊拟建的纽约市第二总部，可以发现，它对大多数社区的预测结果，因个体特质的实现而有很大差异。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Econometrica 社会科学-数学跨学科应用

CiteScore

11.00

自引率

3.30%

发文量

审稿时长

6-12 weeks

期刊介绍： Econometrica publishes original articles in all branches of economics - theoretical and empirical, abstract and applied, providing wide-ranging coverage across the subject area. It promotes studies that aim at the unification of the theoretical-quantitative and the empirical-quantitative approach to economic problems and that are penetrated by constructive and rigorous thinking. It explores a unique range of topics each year - from the frontier of theoretical developments in many new and important areas, to research on current and applied economic problems, to methodologically innovative, theoretical and applied studies in econometrics. Econometrica maintains a long tradition that submitted articles are refereed carefully and that detailed and thoughtful referee reports are provided to the author as an aid to scientific research, thus ensuring the high calibre of papers found in Econometrica. An international board of editors, together with the referees it has selected, has succeeded in substantially reducing editorial turnaround time, thereby encouraging submissions of the highest quality. We strongly encourage recent Ph. D. graduates to submit their work to Econometrica. Our policy is to take into account the fact that recent graduates are less experienced in the process of writing and submitting papers.