The Role of Settlement Intentions (Un-)Certainty in the Labour Market Integration of Ukrainian Refugees in Germany

IF 3.8 3区管理学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Work Employment and Society Pub Date : 2026-04-15 DOI:10.1177/09500170261425857

Davit Adunts, Kseniia Gatskova, Yuliya Kosyakova, Silvia Schwanhäuser

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

This article examines how (un-)certainty in settlement intentions affects the socio-economic integration of Ukrainian refugees in Germany, using longitudinal data from the IAB-BiB/FReDA-BAMF-SOEP survey. Applying an instrumental variable approach, we estimate the effects of permanent, temporary, and uncertain settlement intentions on employment, employment aspirations, and host-country language proficiency. Findings show that settlement intention uncertainty hinders integration outcomes – most notably German language acquisition – while temporary intentions are linked to lower language proficiency and reduced employment aspirations. Permanent intentions, in contrast, facilitate stronger integration across all outcomes. Refugees with uncertain plans exhibit intermediate results. Theoretically, the article contributes to migration literature by disentangling the effects of settlement intention certainty from anticipated duration of stay, and by demonstrating how subjective expectations shape forward-looking behaviour. Our results advance Goal-Setting and Rational Choice Theories, and the Immigrant Human Capital Investment model by integrating uncertainty as a key moderating factor in refugees’ integration trajectories.

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定居意向（不确定性）在乌克兰难民德国劳动力市场整合中的作用

本文使用来自IAB-BiB/FReDA-BAMF-SOEP调查的纵向数据，研究了定居意向的（不）确定性如何影响乌克兰难民在德国的社会经济融合。采用工具变量方法，我们估计了永久、临时和不确定定居意向对就业、就业愿望和东道国语言熟练程度的影响。研究结果表明，定居意向的不确定性阻碍了融合结果——最明显的是德语习得——而临时意向与较低的语言熟练程度和较低的就业愿望有关。相比之下，永久的意图有助于加强所有结果之间的整合。计划不确定的难民表现出中间结果。从理论上讲，本文通过将定居意图确定性与预期停留时间的影响分离开来，并通过展示主观预期如何塑造前瞻性行为，为移民文献做出了贡献。我们的研究结果通过将不确定性作为难民融入轨迹的关键调节因素，推进了目标设定理论和理性选择理论，以及移民人力资本投资模型。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Work Employment and Society Multiple-

CiteScore

7.90

自引率

13.50%

发文量

期刊介绍： Work, Employment and Society (WES) is a leading international peer reviewed journal of the British Sociological Association which publishes theoretically informed and original research on the sociology of work. Work, Employment and Society covers all aspects of work, employment and unemployment and their connections with wider social processes and social structures. The journal is sociologically orientated but welcomes contributions from other disciplines which addresses the issues in a way that informs less debated aspects of the journal"s remit, such as unpaid labour and the informal economy.