Modeling of Maternal Factors Affecting Child Ever Born in Punjab, Pakistan: Indication From Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (2017–2018)

IF 1.7 4区医学 Q1 ANTHROPOLOGY

American Journal of Human Biology Pub Date : 2026-04-13 DOI:10.1002/ajhb.70259

Maryam Siddiqa, Amber Zubair, Asif Hanif, Shazia Iqbal, Tahira Ashraf, Shahzad Ahmad

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Abstract

Objective

Fertility trends and population dynamics in Pakistan significantly influence the nation's socioeconomic progress. Elevated fertility rates drive rapid population expansion, creating major challenges for the healthcare system, education sector, and overall resource management. This study aims to identify key determinants influencing household fertility decisions among women aged 15–49 years in Punjab, Pakistan.

Methods

The number of children ever born to a woman is used as a proxy for household fertility. The analysis is based on data from the latest round of the Punjab Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (MICS) 2017–2018. A Poisson regression model was employed to account for the count nature of the dependent variable. Both Poisson regression and logistic regression analyses were conducted to explore the most significant predictors of fertility variation across the province.

Results

Both the Poisson and logistic regression analyses identified a similar set of significant factors influencing fertility, including age, education, household wealth, fertility intentions, and delivery method. In both models, fertility increased progressively with advancing age, whereas higher educational attainment and better economic status were associated with reduced fertility and lower odds of having more than two children. Women who reported no desire for additional children exhibited higher fertility and a greater likelihood of higher parity in each model, while casarean delivery consistently showed a negative association with fertility outcomes.

Conclusion

Fertility differentials across Punjab appear to be shaped by a combination of biological, socioeconomic, and maternal factors. The study highlights the influence of women's age, household wealth, desire for a child, educational attainment, and previous delivery methods on reproductive behavior. These findings carry important implications for fertility regulation strategies in high-fertility settings and suggest targeted interventions for promoting planned parenthood in similar socioeconomic contexts.

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巴基斯坦旁遮普省影响新生儿出生的孕产妇因素建模：来自多指标类集调查的指示（2017-2018）。

目的：巴基斯坦的生育率趋势和人口动态显著影响该国的社会经济进步。高生育率推动人口快速扩张，给医疗保健系统、教育部门和整体资源管理带来重大挑战。本研究旨在确定影响巴基斯坦旁遮普省15-49岁妇女家庭生育决定的关键决定因素。方法：以每名妇女所生子女的数量作为家庭生育能力的指标。该分析基于2017-2018年最新一轮旁遮普多指标类集调查（MICS）的数据。采用泊松回归模型来解释因变量的计数性质。通过泊松回归和logistic回归分析，探讨了全省生育率变化的最显著预测因子。结果：泊松和logistic回归分析都发现了一组类似的影响生育率的显著因素，包括年龄、教育程度、家庭财富、生育意愿和分娩方式。在这两种模型中，生育率都随着年龄的增长而逐渐增加，而更高的教育程度和更好的经济地位则与生育率降低和生育两个以上孩子的几率降低有关。在每种模式中，报告不想要更多孩子的妇女表现出更高的生育能力和更高胎次的可能性，而剖宫产始终显示出与生育结果的负相关。结论：旁遮普的生育率差异似乎是由生物、社会经济和孕产妇因素共同影响的。这项研究强调了女性的年龄、家庭财富、对孩子的渴望、教育程度和以前的分娩方式对生殖行为的影响。这些发现对高生育率环境下的生育调控策略具有重要意义，并为在类似的社会经济背景下促进计划生育提供了有针对性的干预措施。

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来源期刊

American Journal of Human Biology 生物-生物学

CiteScore

4.80

自引率

13.80%

发文量

124

审稿时长

4-8 weeks

期刊介绍： The American Journal of Human Biology is the Official Journal of the Human Biology Association. The American Journal of Human Biology is a bimonthly, peer-reviewed, internationally circulated journal that publishes reports of original research, theoretical articles and timely reviews, and brief communications in the interdisciplinary field of human biology. As the official journal of the Human Biology Association, the Journal also publishes abstracts of research presented at its annual scientific meeting and book reviews relevant to the field. The Journal seeks scholarly manuscripts that address all aspects of human biology, health, and disease, particularly those that stress comparative, developmental, ecological, or evolutionary perspectives. The transdisciplinary areas covered in the Journal include, but are not limited to, epidemiology, genetic variation, population biology and demography, physiology, anatomy, nutrition, growth and aging, physical performance, physical activity and fitness, ecology, and evolution, along with their interactions. The Journal publishes basic, applied, and methodologically oriented research from all areas, including measurement, analytical techniques and strategies, and computer applications in human biology. Like many other biologically oriented disciplines, the field of human biology has undergone considerable growth and diversification in recent years, and the expansion of the aims and scope of the Journal is a reflection of this growth and membership diversification. The Journal is committed to prompt review, and priority publication is given to manuscripts with novel or timely findings, and to manuscripts of unusual interest.