Confidence judgments, feelings of knowing and judgments of learning: Towards a common framework.

Abstract

This study investigates the hypothesis that the theoretical framework underlying the Self-Consistency Model of subjective confidence can be extended to feeling of knowing (FOK) judgments and to judgments of learning (JOLs). According to this model, when individuals make a binary choice, their confidence in the selected option derives from the internal consistency among cues that are sampled randomly from a shared pool - termed collective wisdomware. Consequently, confidence should increase with the popularity of the chosen option (the "consensuality effect") and should predict the likelihood that others will select the same option (the "replicability effect"). Applying this framework to FOK and JOL revealed that both judgments exhibit robust consensuality and replicability effects. Results for JOLs further indicated that items differ reliably in the extent to which they elicit replicable cues across different encounters, and that signs of shared collective wisdomware exist even among first graders. The implications of these findings for the characterization and development of collective wisdomware are discussed.