Genomic-Environmental Integration Predicts Climate Vulnerability and Adaptive Potential of Tibetan Plateau Herpetofauna

Abstract

The herpetofauna of the Tibetan Plateau, home to Earth's highest-elevation ectothermic vertebrates, face escalating threats from rapid climate change. However, conventional conservation strategies often overlook intraspecific genetic variation and adaptive potential, limiting their predictive accuracy and effectiveness. Here, we integrate whole-genome resequencing data with environmental modeling to assess climate vulnerability in two endemic species: Nanorana parkeri (Tibetan frog) and Thermophis baileyi (hot-spring snake). Results suggest that the western populations of the two species exhibit higher genomic offsets under future climate, while some eastern populations of the Tibetan frog face a decrease in niche suitability, and the hot-spring snake will experience varying degrees of loss of suitable habitats. Furthermore, heterozygosity, genetic diversity, and genetic load demonstrate significant correlations with genomic offsets, suggesting that low genetic diversity and high genetic load may weaken the potential to adapt to environmental changes. Based on a genome-niche index that combines genomic offsets with niche suitability change, we identified evolutionary rescue populations that are potentially tolerant to climate change. Our findings underscore the importance of integrating genomic and environmental data to forecast the adaptive potential and enable effective conservation management of high-altitude herpetofauna under rapid climate change.