The Role of Career Stages and Skills in the Internal Migration Patterns of Shrinking Regions in Korea: A Spatial Shift-Share Analysis

Abstract

Urban shrinkage, driven by factors operating across various spatial levels, is reshaping cities worldwide. While urban shrinkage research has focused on macro-level determinants, existing literature has yet to fully explore the heterogeneous motivations and differential mobility patterns driven by individual labor market attributes in the context of urban shrinkage. This study addresses these gaps by examining interregional migration patterns in Korea, with particular attention to variations across workers' career stages and occupational skills. Employing a spatial shift-share approach, this study considers interactions with neighboring regions to identify the key drivers of migration and reveals a clear distinction between shrinking and growing regions in their capacity to attract and retain workers. Growing regions show a competitive advantage in attracting mid-career workers with cognitive skills. In contrast, shrinking regions are more likely to retain late-career workers approaching retirement across all skill types. Additionally, the factors driving outflows varied significantly among the ten shrinking regions. Some areas experienced outflows of young workers toward growing neighboring regions, while others suffered from a massive exodus in areas where neighboring regions are also in decline. These findings underscore the complexity of migration dynamics and demonstrate that each shrinking region faces distinct challenges linked to industrial restructuring and global competitiveness, thereby highlighting the need for tailored policy responses.