Assessing the Global Burns Burden in the Context of the WHO Prevention and Care Strategy: Insights From the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.

Abstract

Burns impose a substantial global health burden, prompting the World Health Organization to develop its 2008 plan for burn prevention and care, which emphasizes the need for accurate epidemiological data to guide resource allocation across prevention, acute care, and rehabilitation. Using GBD 2021 data, we analyzed age-standardized incidence, prevalence, and years-lived-with-disability rates for burns. Trends were assessed via estimated annual percentage changes (EAPC) and joinpoint regression. We also performed decomposition, frontier, and health inequality analyses, and used an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model to project future trends. In 2021, approximately 15 million new burn cases occurred globally. The age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) declined more rapidly after 2008 (Annual Percentage Change = -1.82) than before. A significant inverse correlation was observed between the disability rate (ASYR) and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) (ρ = -0.11), alongside widening health inequity. Projections indicate a 26.2% global ASIR decrease by 2036, with modest declines in both Low- and High-SDI regions. The decline in burn burden accelerated after 2008, yet its benefits remain inequitably distributed, underscoring the need for nursing-led interventions.