Dust-Induced Losses in Solar Photovoltaic Potential and Their Long-Term Changes Over North Africa

Abstract

North Africa (NA) offers exceptional potential for large-scale solar photovoltaic (PV) deployment to mitigate climate change. Dust aerosols, however, pose a barrier to PV performance by dimming sunlight dimming effect (DE) and settling on panels soiling effect (SE), yet their relative roles across NA's diverse climate zones remain unclear. Here, we employ machine learning and a refined empirical model to quantify dust-induced PV potential losses across NA from 2003 to 2022. Results reveal pronounced spatial contrasts in DE and SE dominance. In Sahara source regions, SE accounts for over 80% of annual losses due to substantial deposition and scarce rainfall for cleaning. Conversely, DE dominates (∼70.6%) in downwind Western Africa (WAF), where long-range dust transport prevails. The transitional Sahel experiences significant influences from both effects. Seasonally, DE peaks in winter over WAF due to Harmattan winds-driven dust transport, and migrates northward with seasonal wind shifts. In contrast, SE seasonality is primarily regulated by precipitation rather than dust deposition, particularly in the Sahel, where wet–dry cycles tightly constrain cleaning. Long-term trend analysis indicates declining DE and rising SE in the western domain, underscoring SE's growing importance. Crucially, SE trends are influenced not only by annual precipitation changes but also by their seasonal alignment with peak SE periods. Even minor decreases in winter precipitation during high-SE periods significantly exacerbate SE in WAF, while increased wet-season rainfall during low-SE periods in Sahel offers limited benefits. These findings highlight the need for region- and season-specific strategies to manage dust-induced solar PV losses.