Decadal climate variability and increasing exposure of Chilean agriculture

Abstract

Central Chile has undergone a steady shift from traditional annual crops to fruit orchards and vineyards, and a decline in the area dedicated to annual crops. This transition coincides with a decrease in precipitation and an increase in temperature. We compare regions experiencing different levels of variability with observed changes in crop patterns. Our findings suggest significant swings in seasonality and transitions between dry and wet months in certain regions and periods. The most impacted regions coincide with areas undergoing transitions toward water-intensive crops, which require technical upgrades of irrigation systems. We suggest that farmers are increasingly turning to groundwater rather than surface water, which may pose longer term risks to the sustainability of Central Chile's agricultural systems.