Prognostic Role of Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure in Acute Variceal Bleeding: A Multicenter Retrospective Study in Australia.

Abstract

Background/aims: Acute variceal bleeding (AVB) is a life-threatening complication of cirrhosis that can precipitate acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF), leading to poor outcomes. This multicenter retrospective study evaluated the impact of ACLF on the long-term outcomes of patients admitted with AVB and compared the performance of prognostic scores in predicting 1-year mortality.

Methods: A total of 168 patients with cirrhosis admitted with AVB between January 2013 and December 2022 were included. ACLF was diagnosed using the Chronic Liver Failure-Consortium Organ Failure (CLIF-C OF) score at admission and reassessed at 48 hours. Prognostic scores including the Child-Pugh, AIMS65, and CLIF-C model scores were evaluated. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was performed to identify predictors of 6-week rebleeding, and Kaplan-Meier analysis was conducted to assess survival outcomes.

Results: ACLF was present at admission in 21 patients (12.5%) and developed within 48 hours in two (1.2%). Although ACLF at admission was associated with a higher unadjusted 1-year mortality rate, it was not independently predictive after adjusting for hepatic reserve (Child-Pugh score) and age (hazard ratio, 0.97; 95% confidence interval, 0.32 to 2.94; p=0.951). The Child-Pugh score was the strongest predictor of the 1-year mortality rate (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve=0.718). The absence of hepatic encephalopathy independently predicted 6-week rebleeding (p=0.015). Endoscopy timing (<12 hours vs ≥12 hours) did not influence the 6-week mortality rate, rebleeding, or the 1-year survival rate in either the ACLF or non-ACLF group.

Conclusions: Although ACLF identifies patients with AVB at high risk, it primarily reflects the severity of the underlying liver dysfunction rather than serving as an independent predictor. Management should prioritize stabilization and optimization prior to endoscopy and individualized follow-up to evaluate transplant candidacy.