Dynamics of ecosystem service values under land cover change in the Dinder semi-arid biosphere reserve, Sudan

IF 8.7 2区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Ecological Indicators Pub Date : 2026-04-01 DOI:10.1016/j.ecolind.2026.114821

Elharith A.A. Hagr , Elmugheira M.I. Mohammed , Nasradeen A.H. Gadallah , Tarig T. Hassan , Ali Omer

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Abstract

Land use and land cover (LULC) changes strongly influence ecosystem service values (ESV), yet their dynamics in semi-arid biosphere reserves remain underexplored. This study quantifies LULC dynamics and their associated ESV changes in the Dinder Biosphere Reserve (DBR), a unique protected area in Sudan, from 1990 to 2034 using multi-temporal satellite imagery and scenario-based modeling. Findings show that dense tree cover declined by 48.20% (1990–2000), then partially recovered by 2014, but is projected to decrease again by 2034. Grasslands and sparse trees exhibited alternating expansion and contraction. While wetlands and water bodies initially declined, they are expected to expand in the future under a business-as-usual scenario. Total ESV declined by 26.67% (US$ 7.29–5.34 billion). Sensitivity analysis shows that water bodies (CS = 0.53) and dense trees (CS = 0.44) are leading contributors to the total ESV. These results underscore the need for adaptive, spatially targeted management to sustain ecosystem functions in semi-arid biosphere reserves.

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苏丹丁德尔半干旱生物圈保护区土地覆盖变化下生态系统服务价值动态

土地利用和土地覆盖（LULC）的变化对生态系统服务价值（ESV）有强烈的影响，但其在半干旱生物圈保护区的动态研究尚不充分。本研究利用多时相卫星图像和基于场景的模型，量化了1990 - 2034年苏丹独特保护区Dinder生物圈保护区（DBR）的LULC动态及其相关的ESV变化。研究结果表明，1990-2000年，密林覆盖率下降48.20%，到2014年部分恢复，但预计到2034年将再次下降。草地和疏林表现出交替扩张和收缩的特征。虽然湿地和水体最初有所减少，但在一切照旧的情况下，它们预计将在未来扩大。ESV总额下降26.67%（72.9 - 53.4亿美元）。敏感性分析表明水体（CS = 0.53）和茂密树木（CS = 0.44）是总ESV的主要贡献源。这些结果强调需要适应性的、有空间针对性的管理来维持半干旱生物圈保护区的生态系统功能。

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来源期刊

Ecological Indicators 环境科学-环境科学

CiteScore

11.80

自引率

8.70%

发文量

1163

审稿时长

78 days

期刊介绍： The ultimate aim of Ecological Indicators is to integrate the monitoring and assessment of ecological and environmental indicators with management practices. The journal provides a forum for the discussion of the applied scientific development and review of traditional indicator approaches as well as for theoretical, modelling and quantitative applications such as index development. Research into the following areas will be published. • All aspects of ecological and environmental indicators and indices. • New indicators, and new approaches and methods for indicator development, testing and use. • Development and modelling of indices, e.g. application of indicator suites across multiple scales and resources. • Analysis and research of resource, system- and scale-specific indicators. • Methods for integration of social and other valuation metrics for the production of scientifically rigorous and politically-relevant assessments using indicator-based monitoring and assessment programs. • How research indicators can be transformed into direct application for management purposes. • Broader assessment objectives and methods, e.g. biodiversity, biological integrity, and sustainability, through the use of indicators. • Resource-specific indicators such as landscape, agroecosystems, forests, wetlands, etc.