Prevalence and natural course of MRI-diagnosed dilated main pancreatic duct: A longitudinal, population-based prospective cohort study with a ten-year follow-up

IF 3.9 2区医学 Q2 GASTROENTEROLOGY & HEPATOLOGY

Pancreatology Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-03-26 DOI:10.1016/j.pan.2026.03.016

Daniel Schmitz , Fabian Yazdi , Kevin Claaßen , Henry Völzke , Mark O. Wielpütz , Philip Konietzke , Ali A. Aghdassi , Robin Bülow

{"title":"Prevalence and natural course of MRI-diagnosed dilated main pancreatic duct: A longitudinal, population-based prospective cohort study with a ten-year follow-up","authors":"Daniel Schmitz , Fabian Yazdi , Kevin Claaßen , Henry Völzke , Mark O. Wielpütz , Philip Konietzke , Ali A. Aghdassi , Robin Bülow","doi":"10.1016/j.pan.2026.03.016","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Background</h3><div>Pancreatic main duct dilation (PMDD) may indicate an increased risk of developing pancreatic cancer. Little is known about the prevalence and natural course of PMDD in the general population. Therefore, this study aimed to analyse PMDD using magnet resonance imaging (MRI).</div></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><div>Longitudinal MRI combined with magnetic resonance cholangiopancreatography was performed between 2008 and 2021 as part of the prospective population-based Study of Health in Pomerania (SHIP), with 2,2 ± 0,6 MRI per participant on average performed within an average of 10,8 ± 1,2 yrs. PMDD was defined as ≥ 5 mm, and was correlated with clinical and epidemiological data.</div></div><div><h3>Results</h3><div>The prevalence of PMDD was 81/2985 individuals (2.7%). The mean age of these was 55.1 ± 13.2 yrs. Cumulative 5 yr-incidence of newly developed PMDD was 1.1% (22/1935) and 3.0% (15/496) after 10 yrs. Poisson regression analysis revealed strong associated factors of PMDD: active smoking (PR 2.93), diabetes (PR 2.58) and frequent alcohol abuse (PR 1.78) After a median follow-up period of 4.5 years, pancreatic cancer and chronic pancreatitis were diagnosed more frequently in the PMDD group: 2/81 (2.5%) vs. 24/2904 (0.8%) and 8/81 (9.9%) vs. 46/2904 (1.6%). Pancreatic cancer-specific survival was lower in cases of PMDD (HR = 4.96 (95% CI 1.31–18.84)).</div></div><div><h3>Conclusion</h3><div>A PMDD ≥5 mm is a frequent incidental MRI finding in the general population (2.7%). The risk of malignant transformation was higher with PMDD (2.5%) than without (0.8%). Chronic pancreatitis was diagnosed four times as often than pancreatic cancer in follow-up.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":19976,"journal":{"name":"Pancreatology","volume":"26 4","pages":"Pages 607-615"},"PeriodicalIF":3.9000,"publicationDate":"2026-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Pancreatology","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1424390326001365","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"2026/3/26 0:00:00","PubModel":"Epub","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"GASTROENTEROLOGY & HEPATOLOGY","Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Abstract

Background

Pancreatic main duct dilation (PMDD) may indicate an increased risk of developing pancreatic cancer. Little is known about the prevalence and natural course of PMDD in the general population. Therefore, this study aimed to analyse PMDD using magnet resonance imaging (MRI).

Methods

Longitudinal MRI combined with magnetic resonance cholangiopancreatography was performed between 2008 and 2021 as part of the prospective population-based Study of Health in Pomerania (SHIP), with 2,2 ± 0,6 MRI per participant on average performed within an average of 10,8 ± 1,2 yrs. PMDD was defined as ≥ 5 mm, and was correlated with clinical and epidemiological data.

Results

The prevalence of PMDD was 81/2985 individuals (2.7%). The mean age of these was 55.1 ± 13.2 yrs. Cumulative 5 yr-incidence of newly developed PMDD was 1.1% (22/1935) and 3.0% (15/496) after 10 yrs. Poisson regression analysis revealed strong associated factors of PMDD: active smoking (PR 2.93), diabetes (PR 2.58) and frequent alcohol abuse (PR 1.78) After a median follow-up period of 4.5 years, pancreatic cancer and chronic pancreatitis were diagnosed more frequently in the PMDD group: 2/81 (2.5%) vs. 24/2904 (0.8%) and 8/81 (9.9%) vs. 46/2904 (1.6%). Pancreatic cancer-specific survival was lower in cases of PMDD (HR = 4.96 (95% CI 1.31–18.84)).

Conclusion

A PMDD ≥5 mm is a frequent incidental MRI finding in the general population (2.7%). The risk of malignant transformation was higher with PMDD (2.5%) than without (0.8%). Chronic pancreatitis was diagnosed four times as often than pancreatic cancer in follow-up.

查看原文本刊更多论文

mri诊断的主胰管扩张的患病率和自然病程：一项纵向、基于人群的前瞻性队列研究，随访10年。

背景：胰腺主导管扩张（PMDD）可能提示胰腺癌的发生风险增加。人们对经前不悦症在普通人群中的患病率和自然病程知之甚少。因此，本研究旨在利用磁共振成像（MRI）分析经前抑郁症。方法：作为波美拉尼亚前瞻性人群健康研究（SHIP）的一部分，在2008年至2021年间进行纵向MRI联合磁共振胆管造影，平均每位参与者在平均10,8±1,2年内进行2,2±0,6次MRI检查。PMDD定义为≥5 mm，并与临床和流行病学资料相关。结果：经前不悦症患病率为81/2985例（2.7%）。平均年龄为55.1±13.2岁。新发PMDD的累计5年发病率为1.1%(22/1935)，10年后为3.0%（15/496）。泊松回归分析显示PMDD的强相关因素：吸烟（PR 2.93）、糖尿病（PR 2.58）和频繁酗酒（PR 1.78）。中位随访期为4.5年，PMDD组中胰腺癌和慢性胰腺炎的诊断频率更高：2/81（2.5%）比24/2904（0.8%）和8/81（9.9%）比46/2904（1.6%）。PMDD患者的胰腺癌特异性生存率较低（HR = 4.96 (95% CI 1.31-18.84)）。结论：PMDD≥5 mm是普通人群中常见的偶然MRI发现（2.7%）。经PMDD患者发生恶性转化的风险（2.5%）高于无经PMDD患者（0.8%）。在随访中，慢性胰腺炎的诊断率是胰腺癌的四倍。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

求助全文

约1分钟内获得全文求助全文

来源期刊

Pancreatology 医学-胃肠肝病学

CiteScore

7.20

自引率

5.60%

发文量

194

审稿时长

44 days

期刊介绍： Pancreatology is the official journal of the International Association of Pancreatology (IAP), the European Pancreatic Club (EPC) and several national societies and study groups around the world. Dedicated to the understanding and treatment of exocrine as well as endocrine pancreatic disease, this multidisciplinary periodical publishes original basic, translational and clinical pancreatic research from a range of fields including gastroenterology, oncology, surgery, pharmacology, cellular and molecular biology as well as endocrinology, immunology and epidemiology. Readers can expect to gain new insights into pancreatic physiology and into the pathogenesis, diagnosis, therapeutic approaches and prognosis of pancreatic diseases. The journal features original articles, case reports, consensus guidelines and topical, cutting edge reviews, thus representing a source of valuable, novel information for clinical and basic researchers alike.