From Hotspots to Action: Spatial Risk and Habitat Priorities for Human–Macaque Coexistence in the Hindu Raj Mountains, Pakistan

Abstract

Anthropogenic pressures and climate change increasingly threaten biodiversity hotspots, especially ecologically fragile and understudied mountainous regions. Understanding the spatial ecology of resident wildlife is essential for addressing the conservation challenges posed in such environments, particularly for lesser-studied primate species in Pakistan. The study area lies within rugged terrain, which is highly vulnerable to climate change. Here, we present the first integrated assessment of habitat suitability and the identification of conflict risk hotspots for the rhesus macaque (Macaca mulatta) in the Hindu Raj Mountains of Swat, Pakistan. Species distribution modeling marked the key hotspot areas of suitable habitat and conflict-prone sites. The models achieved high predictive performance (habitat suitability model AUC = 0.96, TSS = 0.80; conflict model AUC = 0.93, TSS = 0.81). Annual mean temperature, temperature range, precipitation of the driest month, and forest cover were the strongest drivers of habitat suitability. Suitable habitat covered 1571 km² (29.3% of the study area), concentrated in mid-elevation forest-agriculture mosaics. Areas highly suitable for human–macaque conflict were primarily concentrated where suitable habitats overlapped with dense human presence, particularly in Matta (29.3% conflict-prone), Khwazakhela (24.2%), and Charbagh (18.5%). The global human modification index and proximity to human settlements were strong predictors of conflict risk. Our findings provide a spatially explicit framework for prioritizing conservation and management interventions. We highlight the need for eco-friendly, non-lethal preventive measures to promote sustainable human–macaque coexistence in the Hindu Raj Mountains.