Russia-Ukraine war and China’s diplomatic signaling to major European powers

Abstract

Following the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war, China’s diplomatic relations with major European powers have been significantly and adversely affected. Although China has been sending positive signals regarding conflict resolution and striving to promote peace talks, these powers have maintained a skeptical stance while cooperating with the USA to pressure China on issues such as the Taiwan question, the South China Sea disputes, and human rights. To explain the evolving dynamics of China-Europe relations, this article employs signaling theory, categorizing diplomatic signals along two dimensions—credibility and visibility—into four types: high-cost frontstage, low-cost frontstage, high-cost offstage, and low-cost offstage. Based on this typology, the authors conduct a comparative analysis of China’s diplomatic signaling toward major European powers, including France, Germany, the UK, and Russia. The findings are as follows: Against the backdrop of the Russo-Ukraine war, China’s diplomatic signals directed at different countries exhibit significant variation in both credibility and visibility. Toward Russia, China has further issued high-cost frontstage signals, building on a high level of political mutual trust, while also substantially increasing the use of low-cost signals, thereby consolidating bilateral relations. In contrast, toward major European powers, China’s signaling demonstrates clear differentiation: toward the UK, both high-cost and low-cost signals are relatively scarce, reflecting restrained signaling toward a country closely aligned with the USA. In comparison, toward France and Germany, China has maintained frequent frontstage interactions and sustained offstage communications aimed at stabilizing economic and trade relations, reflecting a “wedge strategy” targeting countries with aspirations for strategic autonomy. Overall, in the context of the Russia-Ukraine war, China has sustained or adjusted its bilateral relations with various actors through differentiated signaling. However, critical external factors may influence the effectiveness and anticipated outcomes of these signals. Qi Haixia and Qi Hao are co-first authors.