Assessment of habitat suitability and viability of the stingless bee Scaptotrigona depilis (Moure, 1942) (Hymenoptera: Apidae: Meliponini) in the Neotropical region

Abstract

One of the central research questions in ecology and biogeography concerns the understanding of species distribution patterns and the factors that shape them, especially in the context of scarce and spatially uneven occurrence records. Stingless bees are essential pollinators in the Neotropical region, and rapid climate change combined with land use transformation makes the identification of environmentally suitable areas for conservation urgent. Species distribution models (SDMs) are valuable tools that relate georeferenced occurrence records to environmental variables and project potential areas of occurrence. In this study, the maximum entropy method (MaxEnt), support vector machine (SVM), and the random forest (RDF) algorithm were applied to assess habitat suitability and viability for Scaptotrigona depilis (Moure, 1942) (Hymenoptera: Apidae: Meliponini) in the Neotropical region. Potentially suitable areas for S. depilis included the Atlantic Forest and Cerrado of Brazil, as well as the Yungas region of western Bolivia and parts of the Andean Cordillera in Chile. However, habitat fragmentation caused by urbanization, pasture expansion, and deforestation compromises environmental viability in these regions. Future projections indicate a southward shift in the distribution centroid of the species, with increased suitability in regions of the Atlantic Forest, Araucaria Forest, Andean areas, and the Paraguayan and Argentine Chaco. These findings highlight the vulnerability of S. depilis to environmental pressures and reinforce the utility of SDMs as strategic tools to guide conservation policies, sustainable management, and the selection of priority areas for stingless bees in the Neotropical region.