The challenges of Sino-Russian alignment to the liberal international order in Southeast Asia

Abstract

This paper explores the challenges of Sino-Russian alignment to liberal international order (LIO) in the Indo-Pacific, with a focus on Southeast Asia. Rather than being based upon common interests or values, the alignment between Russian and Chinese interests is pragmatic and expedient in the context of contemporary international affairs. China is traditionally an important player in Southeast Asia, while Russia lacks significant strategic presence and influence in this region despite pursuing a range of energy and economic interests, for example, Russia remains Southeast Asia’s leading arms supplier. Russia’s calculus in the Indo-Pacific, and particularly in Southeast Asia is neither bound nor framed by Sino-Russian relations. However, due to the emergence of strategic competition as the defining feature of contemporary international order, Russia and China’s expedient alignment could pose challenges to the LIO in Southeast Asia. To investigate these challenges, this paper provides an overview of China and Russia’s respective relationship with Southeast Asian countries, using the cases of Vietnam, the Philippines, Myanmar, and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). Through the responses of these countries and ASEAN to the South China Sea dispute and the Russia-Ukraine War, the complex implications of Sino-Russian alignment for the LIO in Southeast Asia will be revealed and discussed.