Evolving concept of strategic autonomy in Europe and Asia: the role of US restraint and simultaneity of conflicts

Abstract

This article analyzes how recent conflicts have influenced strategic choices in Europe and East Asia, contrasting the European Union (EU)’s persistent yet uncertain inclination toward strategic autonomy with East Asian allies’ increasing alignment with the USA. Key events, such as Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, China’s military activities in the Taiwan Strait, and the 2023 Israel-Hamas conflict, are interpreted as attempts to disrupt the existing international order. In East Asia, South Korea and Japan have strengthened their cooperation with the USA, evident in frameworks such as the ROK-US-Japan trilateral partnership and the Quad, to address these emerging threats. In contrast, while EU countries maintain their alignment with the USA, they continue to display an ambiguous inclination toward strategic autonomy, despite ongoing conflicts and an expanding US military presence in Europe. This article argues that the EU’s pursuit of strategic autonomy is more significantly influenced by gradual shifts in US grand strategy than by concerns regarding a potential return of former President Trump. Moreover, the EU’s distinctive response is shaped by its unique historical experiences and assurance institutions, differing from those of its East Asian allies.