Equilibrium dynamics in the Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area: Synergistic analysis of energy, economy, and environment

Abstract

Evaluating the coordinated dynamics of balanced regional development is crucial for implementing sustainable development strategies. To explore the roles of energy, economy, and environment factors in shaping equilibrium dynamics, we develop an innovative theoretical framework called 4E based on four key systems: equilibrium, energy, economy, and environment. In particular, we utilize average nighttime light (ANL) data to evaluate the development equilibrium across 52 counties in the Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA) from 2002 to 2022. The results reveal a clear “east–west” spatial differentiation in regional equilibrium, with higher equilibrium levels concentrated in core eastern cities and lower levels in western peripheral counties, while the overall equilibrium level improved steadily over time. Temporally, the overall equilibrium level improved steadily. Critically, the 4E framework demonstrates that inter-county disparities, initially dominated by the economy, have progressively transitioned toward a more balanced influence from the energy, economy, and environment systems. Achieving balanced regional development therefore requires spatially differentiated policies that promote resource sharing and optimized allocation, leveraging the role of central cities to foster sustainable and equitable growth across all counties.