How the EU can utilize its carbon market to scale up carbon dioxide removal

IF 37.1 1区材料科学 Q1 CHEMISTRY, PHYSICAL

Joule Pub Date : 2026-07-15 Epub Date: 2026-03-31 DOI:10.1016/j.joule.2026.102395

Darius Sultani, Sebastian Osorio, Claudia Günther, Michael Pahle, Katrin Sievert, Tobias S. Schmidt, Bjarne Steffen, Ottmar Edenhofer

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Abstract

Novel carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies need to be ramped up rapidly to ensure the Paris goal can still be reached. Under the current geopolitical situation, many now expect the European Union (EU) to maintain and increase momentum in CDR deployment. While fiscal space is limited, the EU’s emissions trading system (ETS) offers a unique opportunity to provide CDR investors with long-term financial certainty. At the same time, CDR integration into the EU ETS comes with risks that may prevent the EU from taking this step. Using the numerical EU ETS model LIMES-EU, we show that the EU ETS could incentivize 68–86 Mt/year of bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) and direct air carbon capture and storage (DACCS) combined by 2050. We discuss abatement deterrence in the context of an ETS and propose a sequencing approach for integration, which could minimize integrity risk while providing long-term prospects for CDR to scale.

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欧盟如何利用其碳市场来扩大二氧化碳的去除

新的二氧化碳去除（CDR）技术需要迅速发展，以确保巴黎的目标仍然能够实现。在当前的地缘政治形势下，许多人预计欧盟（EU）将保持并加大部署CDR的势头。尽管财政空间有限，但欧盟的排放交易体系（ETS）提供了一个独特的机会，为CDR投资者提供长期的财务确定性。与此同时，将CDR纳入欧盟碳排放交易体系的风险可能会阻碍欧盟采取这一步骤。利用EU ETS数值模型LIMES-EU，我们表明，到2050年，EU ETS可以通过碳捕集与封存（BECCS）和直接空气碳捕集与封存（DACCS）相结合，激励68 - 8600万吨/年的生物能源。我们讨论了碳排放交易体系背景下的减排威慑，并提出了一种整合的排序方法，该方法可以最大限度地降低完整性风险，同时为CDR的规模提供长期前景。

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来源期刊

Joule Energy-General Energy

CiteScore

53.10

自引率

2.00%

发文量

198

期刊介绍： Joule is a sister journal to Cell that focuses on research, analysis, and ideas related to sustainable energy. It aims to address the global challenge of the need for more sustainable energy solutions. Joule is a forward-looking journal that bridges disciplines and scales of energy research. It connects researchers and analysts working on scientific, technical, economic, policy, and social challenges related to sustainable energy. The journal covers a wide range of energy research, from fundamental laboratory studies on energy conversion and storage to global-level analysis. Joule aims to highlight and amplify the implications, challenges, and opportunities of novel energy research for different groups in the field.